Disasters in Slow Motion (pt. 2) - Mar 6, 2020

 So, it has been a week since part 1, and a few things of interest have happened.

1. Known, worldwide cases of Covid-19 have crossed the 100,000 mark to hit 102,048 (up from 86,604).
2. Known, worldwide deaths continue to rise (3,494) putting the fatality rate at about 3.5%.
3. Over half of known cases (57,609) have recovered.

So, these are mostly good things. Despite Covid-19 popping up all over the US like some viral Jack-in-the-box, it hasn’t had a massive increase in the speed at which it is spreading. But, I noticed something else, something that I find VERY troubling.

 

The US has had 320 cases, and 15 deaths, giving the US a mortality rate of 4.6%. This is in line with the mortality rate in Italy of 4.3%. So, I think that we are seeing some suspect numbers coming from some places overseas - such as China and Iran, that are making things look not as bad as they really are. That means that we don’t have the whole picture...and that picture could be really ugly (or not). While not as deadly as Smallpox or Ebola, its lower mortality rate makes it more likely to be spread it is worth noting that the Spanish Flu (the worst pandemic in human history) had a 3.4% mortality rate (on the low end).

 

News of a vaccine being fast-tracked for review is good news, but fast-tracked drugs normally take up to two years and doing things even faster leaves open the possibility of real risks. I’m not certain how I feel about it yet, other than hopeful I suppose. People need to stay focused on this. Wash their hands, take precautions, be mindful when sick and stay the hell home so as to not spread it.

 

The news cycle isn’t beating as big of a drum, having moved on to other things. Perhaps this will burn itself out like other newsworthy diseases have. The 2009 H1N1 outbreak had a mortality rate of .08%, SARS killed only 774 people worldwide (although had a 9.6% mortality rate), and the bird flu has a mortality rate as high as Smallpox - but is very hard to transmit person to person. So, plenty of other things have caught the headlines and faded and - if we are lucky, this will too.

 

But until it does, being prepared is a good idea. SXSW has been cancelled, the new James Bond film’s release has been delayed. We are not at business as normal - we will not be for some time.