Disasters in Slow Motion (pt. 3) - Mar 13, 2020

 

There comes a point in a slow moving disaster when things suddenly pick up speed, when the hurricane touches down. I’m afraid we may have hit that point without even knowing it in the past week. 

 

A state health official in Ohio estimates as many as 100,000 people in the state may be infected. If correct, this would be a staggering addition to the numbers - although good in that it would greatly reduce the current mortality number. Now, Ohio has only five confirmed cases with 52 people under investigation and 333 under health supervision so, how could that estimate possibly be that high?

 

Well, it seems that, while we have been talking about fake numbers coming out of China, the real fake numbers are coming out of the US - due to lack of testing. As of two days ago, only 11,079 samples had been tested - yeah I’ll let that sink in. The US currently knows of 1,873 cases, out of a mere 11,079 tests conducted. People showing symptoms cannot even get tested. Meanwhile, South Korea has already tested 300,000 people, which rather resolves the question of their infection rate of 155/1Mil vs the US rate of 5.7/1Mil - the US numbers are bogus. Not only that, but the numbers we do have show weekly exponential growth. What is going on, unreported is rather ominous.

 

Is it time to panic?

 

No, not yet. But things may get very bad and we suddenly could look a lot more like the situation in Italy - which is horrific. Italy is rapidly closing in on an incidence rate of 300/1Mil with a mortality rate of over 8%. The country is on complete lock-down to the point that wild boars are roaming the streets (seriously, if you can find the photos - it is kind of adorable - take the bright spot in all this while you can).

 

Here in the US, large gathers are being suspended as the NBA, MLB, NHL, NCAA, Disney, Broadway, and many more suspend, postpone, or simply shut down to help avoid the spread of the virus. The economic impact has wiped over $11 trillion from the US markets, rattling the economy, but even more rattling is the every day struggles that this is going to cause. While the market normally is somewhat distanced from the day to day lives of working Americans, that is all about to change if many of them cannot work to make a living.

 

Among those hardest hit right now are performers, who are often self-employed and rely on their next gig to pay their bills. Well, for many of them, there no longer is a next gig (at least not in the next 1-2 months) and those folks are rightfully concerned. Small theaters and venues may also be forced to close permanently due to the loss of revenue. Things are pretty bleak on that front really.

 

Meanwhile, although Covid-19 should be a pretty apolitical topic, there are those who are making it so, and I’m going to address that. FOX news and its followers have been spreading a great deal of misinformation as well as blatant falsehoods with one commentator telling people that they should go about their lives because only 1 n 100 will die while others are wrongfully calling it a flu, and less dangerous than the seasonal flu.

 

Seasonal Flu - estimated annual deaths in the US 41,000 - mortality rate 0.1% Covid-19 - current reported US deaths 41 - estimated mortality rate between 1.5-8.5

 

FOX hammers on the death count to dismiss Covid as being less dangerous than the flu, which people then glom onto claiming it *is* the flu. It isn’t. What people need to be looking at is the mortality rates, and here is why.

 

Spanish Flu - estimated deaths between 17-100 million - estimated mortality rate 2.5%

The numbers involved in the Spanish Flu are so staggering that it is more often tracked with a listing of its Global Mortality Rate (ie, what percentage of the global population did it kill off). Estimated to have infected 27% of the world population the likeliest numbers put it at having wiped out 3% of the global human population. In 24 weeks it killed more people than HIV in 24 years.

 

Now then, compare the mortality rates of Spanish Flu and Covid-19 and you start to see something that makes my blood run cold. Even if lower estimates for Covid-19 are used (I’ve seen them as low as 1.5%) if unchecked in the fashion that Spanish Flu was?

 

2.5% Mortality = 3% population 2.5%/3% = 1% Mortality is 1.2% population = 1.5 Mortality is 1.8% population (Again, if spread as equally as Spanish flu - consider it maximum potential) Current global population = 7,794,798,739 * 0.018 = 140,306,377 dead

 

Now, again I’m going to stress, this number is only if Covid-19 spread in the same fashion as the Spanish Flu. In the modern age, I do not believe this is possible (but I could always be wrong). The point is to show an apples to apples comparison. If seasonal flu spread in the same fashion we could expect 7,794,799 deaths. So Seasonal Flu - 0.1% - 7,794,799 deaths Covid-19 (low end estimate) - 1.5% - 140,306,377 deaths Spanish Flu (current population) - 2.5% - 233,843,962 deaths Covid-19 (realistic high end) - 3.5% - 327,381,547 deaths

 

If you think that these numbers seem apocalyptic, you’re correct. While one can compare apples to apples based on equal global infection rates, that just doesn’t happen in our world today. That is one reason why deaths from seasonal flu are around 400,000 - the other is that some things are just easier to spread than others. So, the apocalypse scenario numbers above are only for direct comparison on which is potentially deadlier. No surprise, it isn’t the seasonal flu - currently.

 

That gets back to our testing and reporting issue. If Ohio were to have 100,000 cases, that would nearly double the known cases globally and the mortality rate world-wide would plummet from 3.7% to 2.2% based on Ohio alone.

 

...and that’s the rub. We know children can carry it for 2-3 weeks without developing symptoms and, due to poor testing in the US, we don’t know how widespread it really is and we don’t know what the real health impact is yet.

 

We are seeing the societal impact though. Yesterday, a friend of mine witnessed a fistfight at a Costco, over someone trying to take more than the allotted limit of cases of bottled water. This falls into place with the fistfights at gas stations that were happening the day before we evacuated for Irma. Society is reaching the point where people are more interested in self-preservation than they are in being polite.

Make no mistake, Covid-19 is no joke. It is not a liberal hoax, it is not overblown by the media, things in Italy are just the beginning and we are likely to see more of the same elsewhere. But also, to get through this we need to work TOGETHER.

 

Social distancing can mean the difference between life and death for people. Telling people that you don’t care, or if it is your time you are fine with that? Time to think globally and act locally. Don’t infect and kill your neighbors. Don’t be a dick.

 

Early on there were many jokes about “if I catch Coronavirus I’m going to attend (political party X’s) events and spread it to them and get them good.” Well, while we may chuckle at that grim humor, those folks come into contact with people outside those events, and things like this can spread like wildfire.

Hell, we now know of not one, two, or three, but up to four instances where President Trump has potentially been exposed (yeah yeah, I know). Trump has publicly declined to be tested.

 

I’m thinking next week is going to be a very bumpy ride. For me? Our travel plans are pretty much dead in the water. The show we were going to attend is likely to announce a cancellation in the next week or so and, while I’d love to take my chances with proper precautions - that just isn’t realistic. I’m very prone to respiratory issues and Jen is asthmatic. So...while the spirit is so willing, the intelligent thing to do is to take my own advice.

 

Stay safe, wash your hands, and stop touching your face.