Disasters in Slow Motion (pt. 22) - Sept 27, 2020

September 27 (01:51 GMT) - Actual Numbers vs. September 17 (21:38 GMT)
Worldwide Cases: 33,053,144 (+2,756,399)
Worldwide Deaths: 998,716 (+49,304)
Worldwide Mortality Rate: 3.02% (-0.10%)
Worldwide Mortality Rate (without US): 3.06% (-0.12%)
US Cases: 7,287,561 (+422,332)
US Deaths: 209,177 (+7,099)
US Mortality Rate: 2.87% (-0.07%)
US Total Recovered: 4,524,108 (+380,967)
Florida/Collier Cases: 698,836 (+24,226) / 12,656 (+332)
Florida/Collier Deaths: 14,023 (+217) / 216 (+20)
Florida/Collier Mortality Rate: 2.00% (-.04%) / 1.70% (+0.11%)
Florida Total Recovered: 276,975 (+102,976)

Here we are, another 10 days have passed. What do we have to show for it? Mortality rates are dropping across our monitored areas - save for Collier County where I live where we have seen another increase. The falling mortality numbers are good-”ish” news. Remember when people were all about comparing Covid-19 to the Flu as a way of downplaying the seriousness?

The CDC estimates the US mortality rate of the 2019-2020 flu season (Oct 1, 2019-April 4, 2020) between 0.04%-0.11%. When you compare that to the current US mortality rate of 2.87%, you start to see a terrifying difference. Even with that mortality rate coming down, it is a catastrophically high number.

Yet people still refuse to wear masks.

So now, in Florida, our Governor has decided to move to phase 3 of reopening. Now, there are required criteria for reopening, chief among them a downward trend of cases over 14 days. Fortunately, we can look at that data for Florida...and learn something major.

See, I do these posts, not only to inform and confront the biases of others, but to keep myself honest and get past any biases I have. In the past 10 days, Florida recorded 24,226 new cases and 102,976 new recoveries. That is pretty big news! So, I wanted to look back even further to see if this was a longer, ongoing trend. Since I link my data in each post, it is easy to check.

Florida Cases/Recoveries (including deaths)
April 14 (23:59 GMT): 21,628 / 1,215 - Starting Numbers
May 1: Phase 1 Begins
May 02 (23:06 GMT): 35,463 (+13,583) / 2,050 (+835)
July 9 (11:00 GMT): 223,783 (188,320) / 34,080 (+22.030)
July 12 (14:35 GMT): 254,511 (+30,728) / 36,267 (+2,817)
July 19 (20:02 GMT): 350,047 (+95,536) / 42,395 (+6,128)
August 4 (16:53 GMT): 497,330 (+147,283) / 50,302 (+12,907)
August 31 (17:26 GMT): 623,471 (+126,141) / 90,018 (+39,716)
September 7 (02:17 GMT): 646,431 (+22,960) / 111,544 (+21,526)
September 14: Phase 2 Begins
September 17 (21:38 GMT): 674,456 (+28,025) / 186,943 (+75,399)
September 26: Phase 3 Begins
September 27 (01:51 GMT): 698,836 (+24,226) / 290,988 (+104,055)

Looking at the numbers...

• Florida entered Phase 1 too early. The state was nowhere close to a downward trend and it lead to a lot of people being infected that wouldn’t have been if DeSantis hadn’t rushed things. That said...
• Florida entered Phase 2 pretty much on track. Despite the earlier fumble, Florida showed a downward trend there.
• Florida has entered phase 3 as it should. I’m actually surprised by this, but I’m glad to see it. This is why doing the math is so important. Now, this is a statewide decline, there may be counties not ready for Phase 3 - and the Governor’s order means that counties and cities cannot overrule the move to Phase 3. If so, we should see the difference start to show up in the numbers in the next week or two.

So...Florida moving to Phase 3 is actually warranted. This is HUGE news! While I still want to be careful, Florida is getting better and is actually following the criteria for reopening (now).

Make no mistake, DeSantis opening the state early was a disaster, and people died because of it. This time though, he is moving forward properly.

I came into this post pretty upset about the move to Phase 3. Then I ran the numbers and accepted what they meant. Now, if everyone had been doing that all along? 200k+ Americans wouldn’t be dead.