Disasters in Slow Motion (pt. 5) - Mar 21, 2020

 So, it has been about 3 weeks since I began writing these and a lot of things have changed in that time. The state of Washington had just experienced its first death, California had a number of healthcare workers in quarantine...Things didn’t look bad yet. So today, we’re going to look at the spread of Covid-19 in the US - as we currently know it based on reports.

January 29, 2020 (17:55 UTC)
Worldwide Cases: 6,171
Worldwide Deaths: 133
US Cases: 5
US Deaths: 0

February 1, 2020 (14:30 GMT)
Worldwide Cases: 12,027 (+5,856 cases)
Worldwide Deaths: 259 (+126 deaths)
US Cases: 7 (+2 cases)
US Deaths: 0

February 4, 2020 (14:30 GMT)
Worldwide Cases: 23,874 (+11,847 cases)
Worldwide Deaths: 492 (+233 deaths)
US Cases: 11 (+4 cases)
US Deaths: 0

In that single week, known cases globally increased exponentially every three days. In the US they doubled once, but testing in the US, like many places, is far behind the curve. So, looking at that rate of growth if one were to predict where we would be right now? It would be terrifying. Let’s predict were the numbers should be yesterday using that 3/6 day growth rate.

March 20 - Estimate Based on Three Day Exponential Spread
Worldwide Cases: 782,303,232 cases
Worldwide Deaths: 16,121,856 deaths
US Cases: 704 cases

March 20 (12:56 GMT) - Actual Numbers
Worldwide Cases: 253,960 cases
Worldwide Deaths: 10,408 deaths
US Cases: 14,372 cases
US Deaths: 217 deaths

What we see is that, globally, the exponential growth of Covid-19 has slowed tremendously, now doubling at a rate of about once every 12-13 days. In the US however, things have really picked up steam - averaging an exponential growth rate of roughly 4 days.

To put this into perspective, if we look at the data for Italy on those same dates, we see that they average about three days to our four on the exponential growth rate.
Feb 4: 2 cases
Mar 20: 41,035 cases

So, when people talk about the US being two weeks behind Italy, what they mean is that Italy has experienced roughly 15 exponential cycles to our 11. If that is the case then the writing is on the wall, we’re in trouble. The known growth rate is 3-4 times slower than it is for the US and Italy.

Now, there will be those who will, rightfully, point out that the US numbers are going to really spike in the next couple of weeks as we begin testing more and more folks. That is true. A better comparison might be that of South Korea.
Feb 4: 16
Mar 20: 8,652
But their growth rate is roughly 5% and they have tested 300,000 people. So, their increased level of testing has Covid-19 spreading far faster within their country than the known levels globally, but still slower than the US and Italy. The Mortality rate in South Korea is 1.2%. That number is both reassuring (lower than the Spanish Flu) and terrifying.

South Korea makes, I think, a good baseline for things as they are likely the most accurate numbers that we have in terms of cases, recovery, and death. Those numbers are why it is so important to slow the spread of this thing and prevent our systems from being overloaded (in Italy it has gotten so bad that not only are hospitals overwhelmed, morgues and crematoriums are beginning to also be overwhelmed).

The CDC predicts that 210 million Americans will be exposed to Covid-19. Using the South Korean mortality numbers would mean that over 2.5 million Americans would die. That is a damned scary bit of math. So, by all means, prepare to shelter in place - doing so could save the lives of a great many people.

On a personal level?

Tax Day has been delayed until July 15th. That provides perceived breathing room for some of my clients, but makes no real difference for 99% of them. It still isn’t a bad move for the Fed to make though.

A number of my friends have been exposed, one of them is symptomatic and is having a rough time of it, another has already lost their father to this. This is starting to hit closer and closer to home, which contributes to the growing sense of dread.

Two weeks ago I poo-pooed the comparison to 9/11. Now? Now I think that this is going to indeed be a generationally defining event. The world is going to change in some ways and, things we once took for granted are no longer going to be acceptable. Just as I used to be able to visit the cockpit of a plane in flight as a child but children today cannot, there are changes coming that will likely be permanent so as to try to avoid this sort of thing happening again.

All we can do is weather the storm and embrace the change.

Stay well.