On the Subject of Mortality Rates

Prior to my launching this blog, I'd had people ask which figures I used for mortality rates, and why. There are two primary methods...

• Deaths ÷ Total Cases, expressed as a percentage - (D÷(TC÷100) = % 
• Deaths ÷ Closed Cases, expressed as a percentage - (D÷(CC÷100) = %  

Now, it is important to understand that it can be said that either number is only accurate to the numbers reported. Neither factors in unreported cases or deaths, and I never try to extrapolate that sort of information.

I am not an epidemiologist. I am not qualified to do so. 

Closed Cases, while appearing to represent a truer mortality rate, instead accelerates deaths versus cases. Deaths are reported as soon as they happen, but it can take weeks for someone to be declared Covid free. These things are not reported at the same frequency. This makes for a MUCH higher number, and is not the number used by the WHO or CDC. As things progress, that number begins to rapidly come down.

Based on the figures at the time of my writing this, CC would be 2.91%.  That doesn't seem to terribly high, but earlier on in the pandemic that number hovered around double digits for a while.

Total Cases, more properly Total Known Cases, gives us a number closer to the truth. While it to is not wholly accurate, more unknown case only drives this number down and unreported deaths, unless in large numbers, don't have much of a statistical impact.

Based on the figures at the time of my writing this, TC would be 1.91%. Now, 1% might not seem to be a large difference, but in terms of deaths among total cases, it is massive and gets more glaring as you scale upwards.

 So, we know that neither number is wholly accurate when looking at that bigger picture. I choose the more realistic of the two numbers - closest to what I feel to be an accurate figure.

I hope this helps with the transparency of this blog.